The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto)

> Darwin Devolves (Behe) is currently the #1 best seller in developmental biology on Amazon and goes into detail on why random mutation and natural selection cannot account for the modern creation myth of "single cell to man"

Yeah...it's not.

As of right now, the #1 seller is The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto). Which just sounds...really boring...

The Kindle version is beat by this book about bees.

And I don't think a freebie should ever be considered a best seller.

The Black Swan

I've seen it plugged here and on the blog, but people assume it's just for Wall Street types or the military (I think all the branches recommend it). Small business owners, backpackers, bartenders, even stay at home moms, they all gain something from it. I've started gifting copies to friends and family, and especially my bosses.

Read, The Black Swan, because people flying airplanes into buildings is a problem that rarely happens...

  - Nassim N. Taleb: Black Swan and Antifragile[0]
  - Robert Cialdini: Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion[1]
  - Franklin Foer: World Without Mind: The Existential Threat of Big Tech[2]
  - Herbert Marcuse: One-Dimensional Man: Studies in the Ideology of Advanced Industrial Society[3]

[0] https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Frag...

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Influence-Psychology-Persuasion-Rober...

[2] https://www.amazon.com/World-Without-Mind-Existential-Threat...

[3] https://www.amazon.com/One-Dimensional-Man-Ideology-Industri...

Fat tails, long-term autocorrelation, discontinuities in price changes, divergent variances.

Aside from missing those observable features of the data, the theory is missing much about market agents: herding and contagion, information asymmetries, slow convergence to equilibrium, non-normally distributed errors, heterogeneous strategies and objectives, interaction effects, confirmation bias.

I'm just repeating Taleb, and his mentor Mandelbrot, of course:

https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Frag...

https://www.amazon.com/Misbehavior-Markets-Fractal-Financial...

This is an article discussing one of the first chapters of The Black Swan by Nassim Nicolas Taleb. I thought it was a great part of a great book that really changed how I think about the world.

If you'd prefer to just read the actual chapters, it starts on page 33:

https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Frag...

This is the sort of thread that hits me right in the wallet.

Here are some books I've given as gifts recently:

* The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a Cataclysm, Lewis Dartnell[1]

* The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb[2]

* Siddhartha, Hermann Hesse[3]

* The Happiness Trap, Russ Harris and Steven Hayes[4]

* Code, Charles Petzold[5]

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Rebuild-Civilization-Afterm...

[2] https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Frag...

[3] https://www.amazon.com/Siddhartha-Hermann-Hesse/dp/161382378...

[4] https://www.amazon.com/Happiness-Trap-Struggling-Start-Livin...

[5] https://www.amazon.com/Code-Language-Computer-Hardware-Softw...

Yep, exactly! Especially u can look on more common topic like success, and part of probability in it.

And sorry, they already have a second edition: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/081297381X/ref=pd_lpo_k2_dp... ,

after this book, i highly recommend read his another book: fooled by randomness

Read the book. http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/d...