Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Author: Philip Eyrikson Tetlock, Dan Gardner
4.3

Comments

by diehunde   2020-04-22
True. Also, if you read Superforecasting[1] you'll learn about several experiments where "non-experts" beat experts by a lot by just being well informed. Even when the experts had access to confidential data.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...

by MarkMc   2020-01-04
Although Sam would have lost this bet, I respect that he had the courage to make a forecast with a specific number and a specific future date.

Too many pundits make grand but imprecise predictions like "AI will become dominant in the next decade". The book 'Superforcasting' tackles this problem in detail: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...

by candiodari   2018-03-23
Exactly. This is the typical business drivel. "Here's a problem A, which you have. We have a solution: let B solve it for you. blah blah. Approach. Example. Anecdote.".

Problem needs to be a convincing and preferably very common problem of some kind. In this article it's "forecasting". And, of course, standard HR/Management practice (surveys + "impartial" statistical analysis in this case) is the way to solve the problem, but of course nobody does it right.

How to solve it ? Buy book X or, if you've got at least 100kg of money to thrown down a hole, hire consultant Y. Only 10kg of money to burn ? Visit website Z, subscribe, buy video, whatever, and get colorful pictures stating the obvious, often with audio.

For this one it's :

A = "forecasting" (really deciding future direction)

B = "forecasting tournaments"

X = https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...

Y = Philip Tetlock ( tetlock@wharton.upenn.edu )

Z = https://www.gjopen.com/

Now, don't get me wrong. Hiring organizational consultants CAN work, of course. Getting ideas from within an organization and being frank and fair about them can bring incredible results. Having someone else come in, see the organization and tell you what's wrong can at the very least give you an idea of what's happening from other people's perspective. Maybe it can help you improve things. If you can afford it, I would advise to do it.

I'm sure this person is a capable organizational consultant, but ...