The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't

Category: Americas
Author: Nate Silver
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Comments

by andreiknox   2019-08-24

De acord!

Depinde și ce înțelegi prin imaginație, în unele aplicații un soft poate fi mai inventiv decât noi. Citeam în The Signal and the Noise că la unele turnee de șah ăia care trișează sunt prinși tocmai pentru că fac niște mutări atât de inventive și ieșite din comun încât ridică semne de întrebare că niciun om nu poate gândi atât de mult în perspectivă, deci trebuie să fie "ajutat" de un AI.

La ce te referi prin imaginație? Care ar fi aplicațiile imaginației noastre prin care ne-am păstra totuși un avantaj față de AI? Sunt sincer curios.

by scott__the__dick   2019-08-24

This is why statistics are so easy to lie with. No one puts the basic effort into understanding what they mean.

Plenty of teams have overcome low odds. There's plenty of variance in sports and the weaknesses of 538s model for direct-game prediction is well known (for ex: the fact CARMELO measures players instead of teams as a unit, that it uses data from the regular season despite large post-season statistical gaps, etc).

The later into the playoffs the more accurate it will get. But it's still a small amount of data but despite all of that it's still one of the best we've got.

FWIW, if you care, 538's creator wrote a good book about bayesian statistics and prediction modelling: https://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-but/dp/0143125087/

by goodDayM   2019-07-21

The original guy posted his prediction to a public discussion website. If he didn't want it spread around he would have kept it within his nice quiet home.

And I brought it up because it contrasted interestingly with Buffett's stance - to trigger a discussion.

> ... this poonslapper will DEFINITELY hear about it from me ...

Me? To my knowledge, I haven't made any specific predictions (because most people are bad at making specific predictions). Feel free to glance at my comment history, I guess?

I could make a prediction if it makes you feel better: Someday there will be a recession, markets will go down and up.

by goodDayM   2019-07-21

> I feel like a lot of people here have this pervasive need to look down on people who made bad calls.

I mention people's predictions not to "look down" on them, but because I'm interested in predictions, especially when they contrast and discussing that.

I especially became interested in that after reading Nate Silver's book (the statistician who started FiveThirtyEight) The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail. Nate discusses at one point that people should keep better track of predictions, because otherwise you end up mostly remembering when someone was right and forgetting the times they were wrong (or vice versa). Some people become overconfident in their prediction abilities.

by speed3_freak   2019-07-21

>such as you ultimately study things to help yourself, but really you're helping someone else who will pay you so you can help yourself

I love to learn about about laminar flow, the Germans who got lost in Death Valley (seriously read this, and his post on the hunt for downed airplanes), how ISIS formed, and an understanding of how people interpret data not because it will pay me, but because it makes me a smarter person. Your own intellect is not most beneficial to you because of what words you can make come out of your mouth, but by letting you decipher the words that come out of other people's mouths. The best thing about knowledge is that it gives you perspective.

>The real question, however, is will that make you attractive to us ladies? That's still the big question. Getting in shape will. Playing board games "for the challenge" with nerdy dudes who talk about pseudo philosophical BS they read on the internet? Not so much.

There in lies your problem. You're wanting to form yourself to make yourself attractive, where as long as you're a top 10 then you can do whatever you want. You honestly think a guy who is in great shape, well read, and works hard but happens to like board games or D&D can't get a girl?. Sure, if that's your only hobby it will be harder, but everyone should have multiple hobbies that they're passionate about. Women love confidence and passion. Confidence is just a different word for truly loving and believing in yourself regardless of what other people think. Passion is just another word for what you really really like.

If you don't love yourself, why would anyone else?