Thermal Control System
(134751192)
Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $125.00 per month.
C2Star
C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.
You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.
Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.
Rate of Return Calculations
Overview
To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.
How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated
= (Ending_equity  Starting_equity) / Starting_equity
Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in markedtomarket equity calculations.
All results are hypothetical.
Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec  YTD  

2021  +3.0%  +18.0%  (2.3%)  +1.6%  +1.3%  +6.7%  (6.3%)  +15.2%  +3.1%  +45.2% 
Model Account Details
A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.
Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.
Started  $25,000  
Buy Power  $23,883  
Cash  $1  
Equity  $1  
Cumulative $  $12,963  
Includes dividends and cashsettled expirations:  $8  Itemized 
Total System Equity  $37,963  
Margined  $1  
Open P/L  $0  
Data has been delayed by 120 hours for nonsubscribers 
System developer has asked us to delay this information by 120 hours.
Trading Record
Statistics

Strategy began3/21/2021

Suggested Minimum Cap$5,000

Strategy Age (days)251.24

Age8 months ago

What it tradesStocks

# Trades40

# Profitable24

% Profitable60.00%

Avg trade duration4.6 days

Max peaktovalley drawdown9.97%

drawdown periodSept 02, 2021  Oct 04, 2021

Cumul. Return45.2%

Avg win$872.92

Avg loss$499.69
 Model Account Values (Raw)

Cash$23,879

Margin Used$0

Buying Power$23,883
 Ratios

W:L ratio2.62:1

Sharpe Ratio2.52

Sortino Ratio4.23

Calmar Ratio11.067
 CORRELATION STATISTICS

Return of Strat Pcnt  Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)27.82%

Correlation to SP5000.57400

Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life17.42%
 Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)70.7%
 Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.00%
 Instruments

Percent Trades Futuresn/a
 Slump

Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.04%
 Instruments

Short Options  Percent Covered100.00%
 Return Statistics

Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, agebased, NFA compliant)0.452%
 Instruments

Percent Trades Optionsn/a

Percent Trades Stocks1.00%

Percent Trades Forexn/a
 Return Statistics

Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)83.0%
 Risk of Ruin (MonteCarlo)

Chance of 10% account loss4.50%

Chance of 20% account lossn/a

Chance of 30% account lossn/a

Chance of 40% account lossn/a

Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a

Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a

Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a

Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)n/a
 Automation

Percentage Signals Automated98.36%
 Risk of Ruin (MonteCarlo)

Chance of 50% account lossn/a
 Popularity

Popularity (Today)0

Popularity (Last 6 weeks)841
 Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11
 Popularity

C2 Score930

Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)714
 Management

No Subs Allowed Flag (1: no subs)0

Strat abandoned?0
 TradesOwnSystem Certification

Trades Own System?

TOS percentn/a
 Win / Loss

Avg Loss$500

Avg Win$873

Sum Trade PL (losers)$7,995.000
 Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table9
 Win / Loss

Sum Trade PL (winners)$20,950.000

# Winners24

Num Months Winners7
 Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct8
 Win / Loss

# Losers16

% Winners60.0%
 Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6566.98

Avg Position Time (hrs)109.45

Avg Trade Length4.6 days

Last Trade Ago1
 Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.40

Daily leverage (max)3.45
 Regression

Alpha0.09

Beta0.93

Treynor Index0.16
 Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02

MAE:PL  worst single value for strategy

MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)

MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)

MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.35

MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01

MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03

Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL)  All trades3.129

MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat

MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat

MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04

Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL)  Winning trades0.455

Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL)  Losing trades1.778

HoldandHope Ratio0.330
 Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.64436

SD0.19802

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.25402

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.89023

df7.00000

t2.65689

p0.01631

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.25406

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.10371

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.05222

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.72823
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio0.00000

Upside Potential Ratio0.00000

Upside part of mean0.64436

Downside part of mean0.00000

Upside SD0.26251

Downside SD0.00000

N nonnegative terms8.00000

N negative terms0.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations8.00000

Mean of predictor0.23702

Mean of criterion0.64436

SD of predictor0.08692

SD of criterion0.19802

Covariance0.01373

r0.79782

b (slope, estimate of beta)1.81755

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21357

Mean Square Error0.01663

DF error6.00000

t(b)3.24138

p(b)0.00883

t(a)1.03467

p(a)0.17036

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44547

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.18963

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29151

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.71865

Treynor index (mean / b)0.35452

Jensen alpha (a)0.21357
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.61148

SD0.18168

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.36573

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.98945

df7.00000

t2.74810

p0.01429

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.33197

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.24779

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.12338

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.85552
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio0.00000

Upside Potential Ratio0.00000

Upside part of mean0.61148

Downside part of mean0.00000

Upside SD0.24503

Downside SD0.00000

N nonnegative terms8.00000

N negative terms0.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations8.00000

Mean of predictor0.23099

Mean of criterion0.61148

SD of predictor0.08535

SD of criterion0.18168

Covariance0.01237

r0.79764

b (slope, estimate of beta)1.69789

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21929

Mean Square Error0.01401

DF error6.00000

t(b)3.23944

p(b)0.00885

t(a)1.16112

p(a)0.14485

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41537

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.98041

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24285

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.68144

Treynor index (mean / b)0.36014

Jensen alpha (a)0.21929
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)

VaR(95%)0.03469

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05544
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)

VaR(95%)0.00000

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00000
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates

Number of observations8.00000

Minimum1.01262

Quartile 11.01646

Median1.03282

Quartile 31.07474

Maximum1.17907

Mean of quarter 11.01316

Mean of quarter 21.02097

Mean of quarter 31.05533

Mean of quarter 41.13464

Inter Quartile Range0.05828

Number outliers low0.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.00000

Mean of outliers low0.00000

Number of outliers high1.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.12500

Mean of outliers high1.17907
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex

Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000

Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00000

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00000

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00000
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs

Number of observations0.00000

Minimum0.00000

Quartile 10.00000

Median0.00000

Quartile 30.00000

Maximum0.00000

Mean of quarter 10.00000

Mean of quarter 20.00000

Mean of quarter 30.00000

Mean of quarter 40.00000

Inter Quartile Range0.00000

Number outliers low0.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.00000

Mean of outliers low0.00000

Number of outliers high0.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.00000

Mean of outliers high0.00000
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T

Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.00000

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00000

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00000

Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.00000

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00000

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00000
 COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.79728

Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.89533

Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.00000

Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.00000

Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal16.14930

0.00000

0.00000
 Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.59818

SD0.17483

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.42148

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.40704

df178.00000

t2.82806

p0.39632

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.01912

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.81445

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.00955

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.80453
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio5.90770

Upside Potential Ratio12.97550

Upside part of mean1.31382

Downside part of mean0.71564

Upside SD0.14666

Downside SD0.10125

N nonnegative terms106.00000

N negative terms73.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations179.00000

Mean of predictor0.20318

Mean of criterion0.59818

SD of predictor0.11188

SD of criterion0.17483

Covariance0.01097

r0.56094

b (slope, estimate of beta)0.87659

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42000

Mean Square Error0.02107

DF error177.00000

t(b)9.01465

p(b)0.16262

t(a)2.37726

p(a)0.38860

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68469

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06849

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07135

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76880

Treynor index (mean / b)0.68239

Jensen alpha (a)0.42008
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.58233

SD0.17420

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.34288

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.32878

df178.00000

t2.76310

p0.39860

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.94181

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.73484

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93248

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.72508
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio5.69884

Upside Potential Ratio12.75230

Upside part of mean1.30309

Downside part of mean0.72075

Upside SD0.14501

Downside SD0.10218

N nonnegative terms106.00000

N negative terms73.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations179.00000

Mean of predictor0.19685

Mean of criterion0.58233

SD of predictor0.11197

SD of criterion0.17420

Covariance0.01092

r0.55987

b (slope, estimate of beta)0.87102

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41087

Mean Square Error0.02095

DF error177.00000

t(b)8.98965

p(b)0.16319

t(a)2.33247

p(a)0.39061

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67981

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06223

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06324

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.75851

Treynor index (mean / b)0.66857

Jensen alpha (a)0.41087
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)

VaR(95%)0.01536

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01977
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)

VaR(95%)0.00543

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01152
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates

Number of observations179.00000

Minimum0.97224

Quartile 10.99779

Median1.00123

Quartile 31.00726

Maximum1.04306

Mean of quarter 10.98962

Mean of quarter 20.99992

Mean of quarter 31.00408

Mean of quarter 41.01598

Inter Quartile Range0.00947

Number outliers low8.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.04469

Mean of outliers low0.97765

Number of outliers high7.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.03911

Mean of outliers high1.02959
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex

Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24019

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00727

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00934

Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12976

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01082

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01504
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs

Number of observations15.00000

Minimum0.00023

Quartile 10.00305

Median0.02020

Quartile 30.03147

Maximum0.07598

Mean of quarter 10.00091

Mean of quarter 20.01038

Mean of quarter 30.02727

Mean of quarter 40.05497

Inter Quartile Range0.02841

Number outliers low0.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.00000

Mean of outliers low0.00000

Number of outliers high1.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.06667

Mean of outliers high0.07598
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T

Extreme Value Index (moments method)6.46469

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05630

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05630

Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.15033

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07941

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08413
 COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.75714

Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.84088

Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)11.06720

Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs15.29780

Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal42.53150

0.00000

0.00000
 Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
 RATIO STATISTICS
 Ratio statistics of excess return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.44146

SD0.16144

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.73455

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.71874

df130.00000

t1.93362

p0.41640

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.06222

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.52111

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.07270

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.51018
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio4.65724

Upside Potential Ratio11.62980

Upside part of mean1.10239

Downside part of mean0.66093

Upside SD0.13275

Downside SD0.09479

N nonnegative terms77.00000

N negative terms54.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations131.00000

Mean of predictor0.15696

Mean of criterion0.44146

SD of predictor0.10630

SD of criterion0.16144

Covariance0.00997

r0.58109

b (slope, estimate of beta)0.88254

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30294

Mean Square Error0.01740

DF error129.00000

t(b)8.10969

p(b)0.15209

t(a)1.61736

p(a)0.41055

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66723

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.09785

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06765

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67352

Treynor index (mean / b)0.50021

Jensen alpha (a)0.30294
 Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
 Statistics related to Sharpe ratio

Mean0.42819

SD0.16081

Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.66267

Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.64728

df130.00000

t1.88279

p0.41854

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.13295

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.44833

Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.14314

Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.43770
 Statistics related to Sortino ratio

Sortino ratio4.47561

Upside Potential Ratio11.43070

Upside part of mean1.09360

Downside part of mean0.66541

Upside SD0.13119

Downside SD0.09567

N nonnegative terms77.00000

N negative terms54.00000
 Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark

N of observations131.00000

Mean of predictor0.15128

Mean of criterion0.42819

SD of predictor0.10647

SD of criterion0.16081

Covariance0.00992

r0.57956

b (slope, estimate of beta)0.87541

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29576

Mean Square Error0.01731

DF error129.00000

t(b)8.07742

p(b)0.15289

t(a)1.58354

p(a)0.41237

VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01500

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66099

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.08984

Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07377

Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.66529

Treynor index (mean / b)0.48913

Jensen alpha (a)0.29576
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (parametric)
 assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)

VaR(95%)0.01460

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01868
 assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)

VaR(95%)0.00505

Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01074
 ORDER STATISTICS
 Quartiles of return rates

Number of observations131.00000

Minimum0.97224

Quartile 10.99736

Median1.00063

Quartile 31.00565

Maximum1.04306

Mean of quarter 10.99049

Mean of quarter 20.99983

Mean of quarter 31.00304

Mean of quarter 41.01385

Inter Quartile Range0.00830

Number outliers low4.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.03053

Mean of outliers low0.97538

Number of outliers high7.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.05344

Mean of outliers high1.02637
 Risk estimates for a oneperiod unit investment (based on Ex

Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21447

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00854

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01379

Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15002

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00919

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01428
 DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
 Quartiles of draw downs

Number of observations12.00000

Minimum0.00300

Quartile 10.00357

Median0.00882

Quartile 30.02852

Maximum0.07598

Mean of quarter 10.00333

Mean of quarter 20.00450

Mean of quarter 30.01980

Mean of quarter 40.05234

Inter Quartile Range0.02495

Number outliers low0.00000

Percentage of outliers low0.00000

Mean of outliers low0.00000

Number of outliers high1.00000

Percentage of outliers high0.08333

Mean of outliers high0.07598
 Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T

Extreme Value Index (moments method)4.60457

VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05676

Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05684

Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.61798

VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08068

Last 4 Months  Pcnt Negative0.25%

Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09282

Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?317669000

Max Equity Drawdown (num days)32
 COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.51229

Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.57791

Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.60612

Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs11.04220

Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal30.94470
Strategy Description
Dear Prospective Trader,
Thank you for checking out my strategy!
“The purpose of the thermal control subsystem is to maintain all the items of a spacecraft within their allowed temperature limits during all mission phases using minimum spacecraft resources.” (Wertz and Larson, “Space Mission Analysis and Design”)
Similar to the Spacecraft Propulsion Subsystem strategy, trades are only conducted at market close; however, Thermal Control Subsystem does not short the market, and only the long instrument UPRO is used. The market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, provides a continuous set of time series data as input. A weighted KNN regression model is then used to predict the closetoclose change of the S&P 500 index on a daily basis using historical data. The predicted index change is weighted against the current market volatility to calculate the amount of leverage (0, 1.5, 3x) towards a long position. The fund is appropriately sized and traded just after market open and just before market close. The basic philosophy of the strategy (as with most machine learning techniques) is to “do what would’ve worked best, given historically similar conditions.” The optimization goal was to maximize daily Sharpe ratio performance while yielding a daily volatility that is twice the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
The high volume ETF UPRO (3x S&P 500 Index) is used to achieve the fund’s goal. By selecting and varying the total proportion of investment into this fund, the account leverage against the S&P 500 index is varied from 0% to +300% in increments of 150%. This strategy was backtested and optimized using almost 30 years of S&P 500 index data. The use of a longterm data set ensures a generalized approach is applied for the various market conditions of the future. All trades are performed using an automated system which interfaces with the Collective 2 API through a MATLAB scripts.
A few important notes about this strategy:
* Automation is recommended since trade timing is important for the accuracy of maintaining the strategy. Trades are placed 1520 seconds before market close each day.
* No stops/limits are employed.
* This strategy places a maximum of one trade per day just before market close.
Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.
Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.
Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.
About the results you see on this Web site
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have underor overcompensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results
The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.
 Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
 Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been rescaled downward to make current goforward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
 All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any pertrade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
 "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.
Trading is risky
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
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Strategy is now visible
This strategy is now visible to the public. New subscribers will be able to follow it.
If you designate your strategy as Private, it will no longer be visible to the public.
No subscribers and simulations will be allowed. If you have subscribers, the strategy will still be visible to them.
If you have simulations, they will be stopped.
Continue to designate your strategy as Private?
Strategy is no longer visible
This strategy is no longer visible to anyone except current subscribers.
(Current subscribers will remain subscribed. You can see who is subscribed, and control their subscriptions, on your Subscriber Management screen.)
Finally, please note that you can restore public visibility at any time.
This strategy is no longer visible to the public. No subscribers will be allowed.
You can restore public visibility at any time.
Suggested Minimum Capital
This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.